The current Bitcoin rally could extend until mid-2025, potentially peaking before a US recession, according to a recent report by Copper Research. As of November 13, Bitcoin is on day 555 of its current market cycle, and a price peak for the digital asset could occur within the next 200 days. Notably, this peak may coincide with a forecasted US recession in mid-2025.
Bitcoin’s market cycles average 756 days, with the cycles starting when the annual average growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalization turns positive and ending at the price peak. The report marks the beginning of the current market cycle around mid-2023, just before asset manager BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Should Bitcoin adhere to its historical price patterns, it may reach its peak for this cycle around mid-2025.
The report references JPMorgan’s estimates, which suggest a 45% chance of a US recession by mid-2025, based on data from Treasury spreads. Thus, Bitcoin’s price peak might align with a potential economic downturn in the US.
The gap between Bitcoin’s price top and realized volatility is also highlighted in the report. Realized volatility, which measures Bitcoin’s price fluctuations over a specific period, currently stands at around 50%, showing that its volatility is only halfway to previous bull market peaks.
Another supportive indicator for Bitcoin’s price trajectory is its filtered relative strength index (RSI). The report notes that the RSI currently sits at 60, which is below previous bull market highs, indicating room for Bitcoin to continue building momentum.
The digital assets market has been on a strong upward trend since pro-crypto Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election. The industry’s total market cap has surged beyond $3 trillion for the first time since November 2021. This rise, largely driven by Bitcoin, aligns with speculation that the Trump administration may establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve similar to El Salvador’s strategy under Nayib Bukele.
Bitcoin’s unprecedented price action has propelled its total market cap beyond that of silver, solidifying it as the 8th largest global asset by market cap. Monitoring Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) will be intriguing in the coming weeks, especially after facing rejection just below the $90,000 level. Currently hovering slightly above 60%, a fall in BTC.D could signal capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, potentially benefiting smaller-cap digital assets.
Bitcoin trades at $87,767, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours, with a total market cap of $1.738 trillion.
