In recent days, Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new heights, with users of the crypto betting site Kalshi predicting that the leading cryptocurrency could hit the $100,000 milestone before the end of 2024. Data from the event contract market reveals that 60% of users believe Bitcoin will achieve this milestone by January, with 45% betting it could reach this level as early as November.
Kalshi, launched in 2021, allows users to bet on various outcomes, including economic data releases and election results. The platform has garnered significant attention this year due to its legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which ultimately resulted in US users being permitted to participate in betting markets for the presidential election.
Since the US presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin has surged over 28%. The election outcome is considered bullish for cryptocurrencies, particularly with President-elect Donald Trump expressing support for the industry and hinting at more favorable regulations.
Mike Colonnese, an analyst from H.C. Wainwright, commented on the current market conditions, stating that strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through 2024, and Bitcoin prices could potentially reach the six-figure mark by the end of this year. Colonnese further noted that Bitcoin is in a phase of “price discovery” after breaking through its all-time highs early last Wednesday following Trump’s official election victory announcement.
This blend of market enthusiasm and regulatory optimism could see Bitcoin continuing its upward trajectory, attracting new investors and solidifying its place in the financial landscape by the end of 2024.
Despite the optimistic outlook from betting markets and investors, Wall Street analysts caution about the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, emphasized this point in a note to clients on Tuesday. Marcelli stated, “We continue to view crypto assets as a speculative trade rather than a strategic investment in portfolios,” expressing skepticism about digital assets making significant disruptive inroads in real-world applications and noting their tendency to increase portfolio volatility.
UBS highlighted that since 2014, Bitcoin has experienced three major drawdowns exceeding 70%, with an average recovery period of three years.
On a brighter note, other cryptocurrencies saw gains on Wednesday. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) all experienced upward movement. Dogecoin surged notably after Trump announced that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would head a newly formed “Department of Government Efficiency,” cleverly abbreviated to DOGE.
However, crypto-related equities did not mirror Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) paused after recent rallies. Coinbase shares dipped about 2% on Wednesday, while Robinhood remained relatively unchanged.
The daily chart illustrates Bitcoin’s price reaching new record highs for five consecutive days. After hitting a new all-time high of $93,000 on Wednesday, Bitcoin retraced to the $90,350 level but remained up 20% for the week.
