The current Bitcoin rally is poised to extend until mid-2025, culminating in a potential price peak just before a forecasted US recession. A recent report from Copper Research, a noted crypto analysis firm, suggests that Bitcoin could maintain its bullish momentum over the next few years.
As of November 13, Bitcoin is on the 555th day of its ongoing market cycle, and it is anticipated that the digital asset’s price peak may occur within the next 200 days. This potential high point for Bitcoin could closely coincide with a looming US recession projected for mid-2025. According to the report, Bitcoin’s market cycles typically span an average of 756 days, beginning when the annual average growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalization turns positive and ending when a price peak is achieved.
The current market cycle began around mid-2023, a period highlighted by asset manager BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Historical price patterns suggest Bitcoin could reach its peak for this cycle around mid-2025. JPMorgan’s estimates regarding the likelihood of a US recession by mid-2025 play a crucial role here, with the financial giant giving a 45% probability based on data from Treasury spreads. Consequently, Bitcoin’s expected price peak might align with a potential economic downturn in the US.
The report underscores the disparity between Bitcoin’s price top and realized volatility, which measures price fluctuations over a set period. Bitcoin’s current realized volatility stands at around 50%, indicating that it is only halfway to the levels seen during previous bull market peaks. Another promising technical indicator for Bitcoin’s price trajectory is its filtered relative strength index (RSI), currently sitting at 60. This figure is significantly below previous bull market highs, suggesting ample room for Bitcoin to continue building momentum into the new year.
The digital assets market has been on a significant upward trend following Donald Trump’s pro-crypto victory in the 2024 US presidential election. This milestone has seen the total market cap of the emerging industry soar beyond $3 trillion for the first time since November 2021. Bitcoin has been the primary driver behind this surge, bolstered by the Trump administration’s rumored plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, mirroring El Salvador’s approach under Nayib Bukele.
Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent has propelled its market cap past that of silver, making it the 8th largest global asset by market cap. Observers will be keen to see how Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) trends in the coming weeks, especially following its resistance just below the $90,000 mark. Currently slightly over 60%, a decline in BTC.D could signal a capital shift from Bitcoin into altcoins, potentially benefiting smaller-cap digital assets.
At present, Bitcoin trades at $87,767, reflecting a 1.1% increase over the past 24 hours, with the asset’s total market capitalization standing at $1.738 trillion.
