In a memo distributed to clients, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan emphasized several key factors that could propel Bitcoin (BTC) to an impressive $80,000 by the last quarter of 2024.
Hougan identified three essential conditions that might drive BTC to new all-time highs in the coming year. He first pointed to the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November, suggesting this political event could influence Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. According to Hougan, any outcome other than a Democratic sweep would benefit the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. While some perceive the election as a binary choice—Republican candidate Donald Trump being favorable for crypto and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as potentially detrimental—Hougan argued that the Democratic Party’s stance is more complex. He explained that the party has varied viewpoints on crypto, ranging from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s “Anti-Crypto Army” to Representative Ritchie Torres’ strong support. The issue over the past four years, according to Hougan, has been the dominance of Warren’s wing in shaping policy and agency appointments, creating a hostile environment for the sector. Nonetheless, Hougan expressed confidence in Republican victory as undeniably positive for crypto, but he also noted Democrat Maxine Waters’ comment that “crypto is inevitable,” hinting at a potential shift in Democratic attitudes toward digital assets.
The second factor Hougan highlighted was the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. Recently, on September 18, the Fed reduced key interest rates by 50 basis points, resulting in a crypto market rally. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China’s decision to inject economic stimulus bolstered digital asset momentum. Hougan pointed out that market expectations for another 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the year’s end, coupled with further Chinese fiscal stimulus, could lead to a strong crypto rally in the last quarter of 2024.
Lastly, Hougan stressed that a period free from major negative surprises would be crucial for BTC’s potential climb to $80,000. He warned that adverse events, such as significant crypto exchange hacks, new lawsuits, or the release of previously locked coins, could disrupt this positive momentum.
Hougan also mentioned that for Bitcoin to reach the ambitious $100,000 target in the ensuing months, growing pro-crypto sentiment would be essential. He drew parallels to the “DeFi summer” of 2020 and envisioned a similar market-wide shift towards crypto, driven by increased use of stablecoins, high-throughput blockchains, and innovations in passive yield solutions.
In related developments, Zach Bradford, CEO of the crypto mining firm CleanSpark, suggested that Bitcoin could soar to as high as $200,000 within the next 18 months, given the right conditions. However, recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose a risk to assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies in the short term. As of the latest data, BTC is trading at $61,999, marking a 1.4% decline over the last 24 hours.