Bitcoin may be stuck in a downtrend, but fundamental analysis indicates it is in a healthy position. According to a recent evaluation by crypto analyst Kaleo, Bitcoin is currently displaying more robust dynamics than it did in the previous halving cycle. This optimistic perspective comes as Bitcoin struggles to maintain a steady position above $54,000 and to push past the $57,000 mark.
Kaleo’s Bitcoin analysis, shared on social media platform X, compares the current BTC price performance since the April 2024 halving to its performance following the May 2020 halving. Despite 141 days having passed since the last halving, the BTC price has yet to meet the expectations held by many. The analyst points out that Bitcoin is presently trading 19% below its all-time high of $69,434, which was reached during the last market cycle. While some may view this underperformance as indicative of a prolonged bearish trend, Kaleo emphasizes that Bitcoin is actually faring relatively well. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was already down 46% from its 2018 peak at a similar post-halving point. This historical context underscores Bitcoin’s stronger position today, despite its current challenges in breaking significantly higher.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,616. The lack of sustained bullish momentum since August has prompted several crypto analysts to temper their previous optimistic forecasts. Consequently, there have been numerous negative and bearish predictions given the prevailing market conditions.
However, Kaleo draws a parallel to the sentiment that prevailed shortly after the 2020 halving. During that period, negative outlooks and doubts about BTC’s future were rampant. Yet, Bitcoin bulls defied these predictions, pushing the cryptocurrency’s market cap above the $1 trillion mark for the first time. This surge also drove a significant rise in the value of many altcoins and heralded the emergence of new sectors like NFTs.
Kaleo’s analysis suggests that, despite the current pessimism, history might once again repeat itself, with Bitcoin rising above market expectations. Moreover, the analyst highlights that the crypto ecosystem is now better positioned to support a stronger price surge. Institutional investors, for instance, can now efficiently invest in BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, regulatory clarity surrounding the crypto industry has significantly improved over the past four years.
Another analyst, Rekt Capital, has examined previous halving cycles and proposed that, if history is any indication, the next Bitcoin breakout could occur in October, which has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. Historical patterns also suggest that the market peak could happen between 518 and 546 days after the April halving.
Bitcoin’s current price trend hovers at $56,600, reflecting the ongoing balance of optimistic potential and present-day challenges.
