Bitcoin has recently achieved new high milestones, with users on the crypto betting site Kalshi forecasting that the leading cryptocurrency might break the $100,000 barrier by the close of 2024. Data from the event contract market shows that 60% of users are optimistic that Bitcoin will reach this target by January, and 45% are confident it might even happen as soon as November.
Kalshi, established in 2021, allows participants to wager on various outcomes ranging from economic indicators to election results. This year, the platform has garnered substantial attention, primarily due to its legal skirmish with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Following this legal battle, US users were granted the ability to engage in betting markets related to the presidential election.
Since the US presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin’s value has surged by over 28%. Investors have interpreted the election results as a bullish signal for cryptocurrencies, especially given President-elect Donald Trump’s favorable stance on the industry and his hints at more accommodating regulations. Analyst Mike Colonnese from H.C. Wainwright noted that strong positive sentiment is likely to continue through 2024, with Bitcoin potentially reaching the six-figure mark by year’s end. Colonnese emphasized that Bitcoin is currently in a phase of “price discovery” after breaking past its previous all-time highs following the announcement of Trump’s election win. He suggested that the current mix of market enthusiasm and regulatory optimism could drive BTC to attract new investors and solidify its status in the financial landscape by the end of 2024.
However, Wall Street remains cautious. UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for the Americas, Solita Marcelli, highlighted the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies in a client note. Marcelli asserted that crypto assets should be viewed as speculative trades rather than strategic investments, pointing out their tendency to increase portfolio volatility. UBS also remarked that Bitcoin has experienced three significant downturns exceeding 70% since 2014, with each recovery averaging about three years.
Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies saw gains on Wednesday. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) all experienced upward momentum. Dogecoin notably surged after Trump announced that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would lead a newly established “Department of Government Efficiency,” humorously abbreviated as DOGE.
Despite Bitcoin’s bullish trends, crypto-related equities took a pause. Shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) slightly dipped, with Coinbase seeing a 2% drop and Robinhood remaining relatively stable. On the trading front, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $93,000 on Wednesday before settling back to around $90,350, still up 20% for the week.
