Bitcoin (BTC) is inching closer to its all-time high (ATH), sparking excitement among bullish investors. However, seasoned analyst Peter Brandt advises caution, urging enthusiasts to remain optimistic yet avoid becoming overly dogmatic.
Bitcoin’s potential breakout remains unconfirmed. After a tepid start to October—typically a bullish period for Bitcoin—the digital asset is currently trading at $71,789, just about 3% below its March 2024 ATH of $73,737. The potential for a new ATH has the crypto market abuzz, but veteran analyst and trader Brandt emphasizes that several conditions must be met for a confirmed breakout.
In a post on October 29, Brandt cautioned BTC bulls against excessive enthusiasm without technical confirmation. He warned about the limitations of diagonal patterns, particularly those with slanted boundary lines on trading charts. According to Brandt, merely “nicking” a boundary line might excite investors, but it does not signify a confirmed breakout. Brandt has set the target price at $76,000, stating that Bitcoin’s daily chart must close above this level, with an average true range (ATR) measurement confirming the move above Bitcoin’s previous high set in March.
For those unfamiliar with ATR, it is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility by averaging true price ranges over a set period, typically 14 days. This measurement helps traders gauge potential price fluctuations and set more informed stop-loss or profit targets.
Brandt further notes that such a breakout must be validated by a close on Sunday at midnight UTC to ensure it is not a false move that could trap bullish investors. On the weekly chart, he highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent advances have “only nicked important chart points,” rather than breaking through convincingly. He concluded that BTC’s price still has a substantial journey before decisively forming a new support level.
Another crypto analyst, 0xAmberCT, underscored the significance of the strong resistance zone around $71,000 to $73,000 but shared several reasons why this time might be different. First, the potential victory for Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump could provide the necessary boost for the wider crypto market to begin its Q4 2024 rally. At the time of writing, Polymarket gives Trump a 66.5% chance of victory compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 33.5%. A Trump win is seen as a positive for the digital assets industry.
Additionally, recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the heightened prospects of a “soft-landing” are expected to increase market risk-taking appetite. Risk-on assets like BTC are anticipated to benefit in a lower interest rate environment. This sentiment aligns with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s prediction that BTC may surge to $80,000 in Q4 2024.
However, crypto analyst Cole Garner recently shared a more cautious outlook, suggesting that BTC might head lower before achieving a new ATH due to tightening on-chain liquidity. As of now, BTC trades at $71,789, up 4% in the past 24 hours.