Bitcoin’s price action has shown signs of consolidation beneath the $35,000 support level. Despite the volatility, the majority of owners have shown resilience by maintaining their positions. In-depth analysis of on-chain data reveals that an unprecedented 88.5% of Bitcoin remained stationary within a three-month timeframe, marking a new record. The upside potential of the leading cryptocurrency remains robust. Despite ongoing consolidation, Bitcoin has impressively rallied by 26% since October’s onset.
Throughout the week, Bitcoin intermittently ascended above the $35,000 mark, triggering profitability for countless Bitcoin wallets. However, the cryptocurrency has recently fallen below this milestone, causing some stir in the market. Yet, the bullish sentiment among long-term investors remains unperturbed as gleaned from on-chain analytics. The HODL waves metric, developed by Glassnode, has garnered particular attention, contributing to the understanding of Bitcoin’s current lifecycle.
HODL waves change their color profile based on the age of the Bitcoins within the wallets. As soon as Bitcoins are transferred, they exhibit a red color that gradually transitions towards purple, indicating an extended period of dormancy.
Evidently, 90% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained untouched over the last three months. This metric serves as a testament to the deep-seated confidence of Bitcoin investors. Another related metric from IntoTheBlock provides an insight into the shifting retail trading landscape. It indicates an increasing trend of investors morphing into long-term stakeholders, fuelled by the speculative possibility of a BTC spot ETF getting the nod from the SEC. IntoTheBlock’s holding metric identifies a record-breaking 34 million addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than a year.
The prospect of a Bitcoin ETF gaining approval in the U.S has significantly bolstered investor confidence. The industry is eagerly awaiting the SEC’s verdict on spot Bitcoin ETFs, a move that many believe could trigger the next bullish surge for the cryptocurrency. However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s recent spike has been largely attributed to macroeconomic factors including a drop in U.S bond yields, rather than just the anticipation of spot ETFs.
Market analysts suggest that the world’s premier cryptocurrency will likely maintain its consolidation phase until a catalyst emerges to incite a rally. The previous instance of Bitcoin’s supply dwelling around the 88% mark was in late 2022, during a similar consolidation phase which eventually initiated a downtrend, sending Bitcoin spiraling below $20,000. Should ongoing consolidation persist, the Bitcoin market may emulate this historic pattern, potentially experiencing a descent beneath its current range to hit the $30,000 mark.
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