In recent days, Bitcoin has exhibited a wobbly price action, capturing the attention of analysts who continue to scrutinize its performance. Earlier today, a CryptoQuant analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross, a metric traditionally used to signal potential local tops and bottoms in Bitcoin’s price movements.
According to analyst Burak Kesmeci, this metric is currently struggling to surpass its previous peaks, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s near-term future. The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) Golden Cross is a critical metric that assesses the health of Bitcoin’s market by calculating the ratio of network value (market cap) to daily transaction volume and then applying a moving average to this ratio.
Traditionally, when the NVT Golden Cross exceeds 2.2 points, it signals a local top, while a drop below -1.7 points indicates a local bottom. Over the past few months, the NVT Golden Cross has exhibited a troubling trend. The metric has consistently failed to reach previous peaks, which historically suggests bearish tendencies. Since March 2024, the peaks of the NVT Golden Cross have been on a steady decline. Kesmeci pointed out specific figures: on March 31, the metric was at 3.17; on April 29, it decreased to 3.08; on May 27, it fell further to 2.67; on July 29, it was down to 2.03, and on August 26, it plummeted to 1.46. This declining trend raises concerns that the current uptrend in Bitcoin’s price may be losing momentum.
Kesmeci noted that for momentum to be regained, the NVT Golden Cross would need to surpass its previous peaks, rallying the bulls in the process.
Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts are alarmed. Prominent crypto analyst Ash Crypto recently shared a more optimistic perspective, suggesting that the current price dips should be seen within the context of a broader bullish pattern. Ash Crypto emphasized that the Bitcoin bull-flag pattern remains intact and advised investors to focus on long-term charts rather than short-term volatility.
Supporting his bullish stance, Ash Crypto pointed to global liquidity metrics, specifically noting that global liquidity (M2) has reached an all-time high of $95 trillion. Historically, significant upward movements in Bitcoin’s price have correlated with high global liquidity levels. His analysis suggests that this could propel Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 mark sooner than expected, with the potential for even higher gains, possibly climbing to $125,000.
