Bitcoin has been experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish trends without achieving any significant highs since its new peak above $73,000 in March. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has been hovering below $60,000, hitting resistance each time it nears that mark.
Despite this, numerous analysts and experts maintain a positive outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. Prominent Bitcoin researcher Sminston With recently provided an intriguing forecast for BTC, based on a thorough analysis of its price patterns during previous bull cycles. With’s study, which he shared on Elon Musk’s social media platform, X, draws insights from Bitcoin’s peak periods in 2011, 2013, and 2017 to predict future trends for the cryptocurrency.
The analysis utilized a concept called “decaying peaks,” which refers to the progressively lower returns observed in successive Bitcoin bull runs as the market matures and gains wider acceptance. This phenomenon is analyzed through an “exponential decay fit,” aligning historical peaks from the years mentioned to suggest future price movements.
With’s study incorporated this model to estimate the peak for the 2021 cycle, which resulted in a prediction close to actual market behavior. The forecasted peak was $65,732.72, while the actual peak was $64,682.47, demonstrating the potential accuracy of this analytical method.
Extending his model to future cycles, With put forth an ambitious prediction for the 2024-2025 period. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could reach as high as $164,000, assuming the continuation of identified patterns in BTC’s past market behavior.
Nevertheless, With cautioned that these predictions should be approached with skepticism due to the limited data set—only four market cycles have been analyzed so far. He acknowledged that the precise exponential decay of the tops against the power law support is uncertain, advising caution but also suggesting the projections are worth monitoring as the current cycle progresses.
At present, Bitcoin’s price shows a lateral movement on the 1-hour chart, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty and mixed sentiments in the market.
