Sina, a professor, consultant, and co-founder & COO of 21stCapital.com, is forecasting that Bitcoin’s price could soar as high as $285,000 by the close of 2025. In a new analysis shared on the social media platform X, Sina employs a quantile regression model to track distinct phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle.
According to the model, the Cold Zone, which constitutes prices below the 33rd percentile, spans from $55,000 to $85,000. Sina suggests that this range could mark the lowest possible price for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, making it an ideal period for aggressive accumulation of the cryptocurrency.
Moving up, the Warm Zone, covering the 33rd to 66th percentiles, ranges between $85,000 and $136,000. This phase is characterized by growing market momentum and an increase in mainstream attention. Sina advises using a standard accumulation strategy, such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), during this period to gradually increase Bitcoin holdings.
The Hot Zone, encompassing prices above the 66th percentile, stretches from $136,000 to $285,000. This phase is likely to witness heightened volatility and significant price swings as mass adoption peaks and leveraged trading positions become more common. While substantial gains are possible, the risk of price reversals escalates. Sina recommends that investors either hold and enjoy potential gains or consider gradually exiting their positions based on individual risk assessments. Historical data suggests that market tops typically occur in the 90th to 99th percentile range, with the 90th percentile beginning at $211,000.
One intriguing aspect of Sina’s model is its alignment with Bitcoin’s historical phase transitions, noting that Bitcoin typically spends exactly one-third of its time in each zone before transitioning, almost like clockwork. This pattern implies that the majority of bear markets occur below the 33rd percentile, while bull market euphoria kicks in above the 66th percentile.
Renowned crypto analyst PlanC acknowledged Sina’s model, describing it as a “perfect explanation—super clear.” Sina credited PlanC for the foundational work that influenced his own model.
PlanC recently updated his own “Power Law Probability Model,” which predicts Bitcoin prices ranging from $189,733 to $245,264 for the 97th to 99.9th percentiles, and from $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90th to 97th percentiles. PlanC emphasizes that despite appearances, the data underpinning these forecasts follows a power-law relationship, independent of how it’s plotted—whether on linear, log-linear, or log-log scales.
PlanC elaborates on the significance of various quantiles to contextualize the model’s predictive capabilities. The 99.9th percentile indicates that Bitcoin’s price has surpassed this level only 0.1% of the time, equivalent to one day out of every 1,000 days—a rarity. The 99th percentile means the price has been above this line 1% of the time, or one day out of every 100 days. Conversely, the 0.1% quantile shows that the price has fallen below this level only 0.1% of the time.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $67,121.