For the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has been tightly confined within a narrow range of $62,000 to $64,000, following a surge in bullish sentiment triggered by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates on September 18. This critical move by the Fed has sparked optimism among investors, yet Bitcoin has struggled to consolidate above the pivotal $64,000 level. A breakthrough at this threshold could pave the way for retesting previously lost resistance levels, potentially targeting $70,000 in the short term.
Despite this short-term stagnation, several analysts maintain a positive outlook for Bitcoin as the market approaches the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year. Market expert Lark Davis, for instance, recently highlighted historical trends suggesting the average return for Bitcoin during Q4 is a remarkable 88%. Davis suggested that if Bitcoin replicates this performance, it could soar to nearly $120,000. Even a more conservative estimate of a 55% gain, similar to last year’s performance, would see the price reaching $100,000.
Furthermore, Davis points out that this year offers unique catalysts that could drive significant price movements, including the launch of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, the upcoming US elections, and the anticipated $16 billion in cash repayments from the collapsed FTX exchange.
However, when delving into the current state of the Bitcoin market, signs indicate that current price movements are being “artificially constrained.” Analyst InspoCrypto has noted that the price action has persistently hovered around $63,000, with breakout attempts consistently thwarted. A significant institutional options trader has reportedly executed a block trade aimed at keeping Bitcoin’s price stable until October 4.
InspoCrypto further explains that the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicates a pattern of distribution even as prices rise, while the Futures CVD shows a divergence, suggesting recent price increases have been primarily driven by futures trading. Additionally, the Whales vs. Retail Ratio analysis from Hyblock supports this view, revealing that while whales are accumulating short positions, retail investors are predominantly betting on long positions—creating a potentially unfavorable scenario for the latter group.
Yet, InspoCrypto believes that the market will see one final dip before reaching new all-time highs (ATHs) of $80,000 or even $85,000 for the largest cryptocurrency in the market. Adding to the technical analysis, analyst Ali Martinez points out that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the $64,000 mark, which is acting as a short-term resistance level. A breakout above this key level could signify a significant bullish trend, according to Martinez.
Looking further ahead, if the Bitcoin Long-Term Power Law holds true, Martinez believes the next market top could reach around $400,000, with predictions for this peak to occur by October of next year. Overall, while Bitcoin faces short-term challenges, the consensus among analysts is that the cryptocurrency is poised for new all-time highs in Q4 and into 2025, despite the current state of the market and BTC’s inability to overcome short-term hurdles.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $63,160, showing little change from Monday’s price and up 0.7% over the past 24 hours.
