There are whispers swirling around the mysterious and oft-opaque world of Bitcoin, suggesting a pattern among its long-term holders that is hinting that our current bull run may only be 40% complete. Bitcoin, in its electronic majesty, always seems to keep its spectators on their toes, and this new development is no different.
Insider information from Glassnode’s primary analyst, known as Checkmate, tells of an intriguing trend among Bitcoin’s steadfast long-term holders (LTHs). These stone-walled investors have been known for keeping their cryptographic currency safe in their pockets for half a year or more.
There’s an inverse relationship for investors between possession duration and the likelihood of sale. Simply put, the longer an investor clings onto their coins, the more determined they become to hold onto them, regardless of the market’s upheavals. Given the tenacity with which these LTHs cling to their electronic gold, any selling activity on their part attracts significant attention.
In a landscape reminiscent of a grand, shifting, financial chessboard, LTHs have traditionally began selling off their assets during bull runs, once Bitcoin’s price shatters through its previous all-time high (ATH). These long-term investors, sitting on their profits built over extensive periods, start spending when a surge in demand during bull rallies accepts their offerings at sky-high prices.
The cryptographic chameleon has replicated its previous patterns with its recent ATH breach, with LTHs initiating their round of spending, Checkmate noted. Bitcoin’s supply among LTHs has followed a structured rhythm over the past few years, and recent patterns indicate that this melody continues to play.
A noticeable downtick has been observed in recent weeks with this metric, indicating a potential shift. Interestingly, there exists a delay between procurement and an uptick in supply. This asymmetry is due to the ‘aging’ of the newly acquired coins, which must reach an age of six months to be considered part of the LTHs’ holdings.
However, drawdowns face no such delay – once coins are sold, their age is instantly reset, and the relevant total plummets. Therefore, the narrative unfolding and evidence confirming that the recent distribution among LTHs is occurring.
“In the previous two cycles, new Bitcoin demand absorbed this LTH sell-side for approximately 6-8 months, while prices climbed multiple times higher,” explained the Glassnode lead, laying further context to the process. Historically, LTH supply has typically experienced a reduction of around 14% during these bull market selloffs.
With historical averages as a guide, the prognostication is that based on the current LTH supply drawdown, we’re about 40% of the way through its bull run cycle. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to roar, its price surging to a staggering $71,800 in the past 24 hours. This digital asset shows no signs of slowing its upward momentum, promising another intriguing chapter in Bitcoin’s fascinating saga.
