In an unexpected turn of events for the 2024 United States presidential election, the betting odds did not shift after Vice President Kamala Harris announced her running mate for the November 5 contest. Harris, who became the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision in July to forego a second term due to his age of 81, confirmed on Tuesday that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz had accepted her offer to be her vice presidential candidate. Walz, who has served as the governor of Minnesota since January 2019 and was previously a member of Congress, is a Democrat known for his background as a high school social studies teacher, football coach, and union member. He is expected to bolster support for Harris across the Midwest as she attempts to become the first woman to hold the office of commander-in-chief.
Despite the announcement, bettors remained largely indifferent. On Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer betting exchange, former President Donald Trump retained his position as the 2024 front-runner. His implied odds of winning persisted at 53%, while Harris’s odds implied a 46% likelihood of victory. As of August 6, Polymarket reported that its market for the 2024 presidential election had $511.4 million wagered on the outcome.
Similarly, on Betfair, another political wagering exchange, Trump remained the favorite with odds at 5/6 (-120), implying a roughly 55% chance of winning. A $100 bet on this line would result in an $83.33 profit. Harris’s odds were 6/5 (+120), meaning a $100 bet would net $120 if she won.
Upon being selected, Walz expressed enthusiasm on social media, stating, “I’m all in. Vice President Harris is showing us the politics of what’s possible. It reminds me a bit of the first day of school.” He added that it was “the honor of a lifetime” to run with Harris. Harris commended Walz on social media, highlighting his accomplishments for working families and expressing her excitement to have him as part of her team.
Some political observers had speculated that Harris might choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, but critics suggested that Harris might have steered clear of Shapiro due to his Jewish heritage, which could affect the Democrats’ pro-Palestine vote. Choosing Walz appeared to be a safer option, although Pennsylvania remains a crucial battleground state in the upcoming election. Minnesota, in contrast, has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972.
Walz, an early critic of Trump and his running mate Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, has faced backlash from some within the Democratic Party for being Harris’s choice. Liberal political commentator Damon Linker opined that Harris chose “a dime-a-dozen blue-state governor” over “the very popular governor of a neck-and-neck must-win purple state.” Meghan McCain, a prominent opponent of Trump, remarked that “Trump and Republicans got lucky with the Walz pick.”
In the United Kingdom, where regulated sportsbooks accept political bets, major betting shops continued to favor Trump and Vance for the 2024 election. Trump’s odds were set at 4/5 (-125) at William Hill and 8/11 (-138) at Paddy Power, while Harris was listed at even money (1/1, +100).
President Biden expressed his approval of Harris’s choice, praising both Harris and Walz on social media. “They will be the strongest defenders of our personal freedoms and our democracy. And they will ensure that America continues to lead the world and play its role as the indispensable nation,” Biden stated.
