In 2020, the launch of the Baltic-connector gas pipeline, a vital resource shared between Finland and Estonia, marked a significant stride in regional energy cooperation. However, recent damage to this underwater energy conduit, which occurred last Sunday, has forced officials to consider the possibility that such damage wasn’t an accident but a deliberate act of sabotage, potentially connected to “external activity.”
In the aftermath of the incident, an immediate drop in pressure led to a shutdown of the Baltic-connector pipeline. Furthermore, damage was also reported on a key telecoms cable, leading to a thorough investigation.
Earlier this week, Finland’s prime minister announced that the source of the leak was identified and a comprehensive investigation by both countries had been initiated. Despite these updates, Petteri Orpo, relayed that the definitive cause remained undetermined.
Speculations have since been raised among Finnish sources, indicating possible Russian sabotage as retaliation for Finland’s recent initiation into NATO in April this year.
Findings by Norsar, Norway’s seismological institute, point towards a “probable explosion” happening along Finland’s Baltic Sea coast on Sunday, some minutes past the first hour (22:20GMT on Saturday). The event, however, was recorded as fairly minor with a 1.0 measure, a stark contrast to the significantly larger explosions that targeted the Nord Stream pipelines last September.
Contrarily, Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation (KRP) has expressed that there are “no indications” of explosives used, although it acknowledges the damage’s severity, predicting months-long repair duration.
Meanwhile, Finnish authorities noted that both pipeline and cable damages transpired in separate locations within Finland’s Exclusive Economic Zone. With respect to the pipeline damage, Mr. Orpo, in a press briefing, maintained that neither standard use nor pressure fluctuations could have resulted in such harm, dismissing the likelihood of other causes like seismic activity.
The Baltic-Connector pipeline, currently serving as Finland’s sole direct link to the broader gas network of the European Union, is not a threat to the nation’s energy security, reassured Mr. Orpo. He highlighted the availability of ample alternative gas sources that can alleviate the problem at hand.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s military alliance’s chief and representative of Finland and Estonia, conveyed that the alliance is prepared to support any allies who are affected and assured information sharing. Furthermore, a Finnish source alerted the BBC about the anticipation of such an incident, further revealing Helsinki’s careful handling of the attribution to prevent false allegations pending definitive results from the investigation.
The possibility of this deliberate damage has added fuel to the fire concerning European gas prices, causing a dramatic rise of 13.5% on Tuesday to 124 pence per therm after being as low as 88 pence on Friday.
Moreover, the damage has renewed concerns over energy security, given last year’s Nord Stream pipeline blasts. The Baltic-connector, operational since 2020, alternates gas supply between Estonia and Finland based on their respective needs.
The recent pipeline incident occurs on the backdrop of Finnish commencement of gas imports since Russia terminated such transactions in May the previous year. Natural gas forms approximately 5% of Finland’s energy consumption, highlighting the critical role the pipeline plays in the country’s energy sector.
