Cointelegraph has reviewed prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, which forecast a promising year for cryptocurrencies in 2025. Traders on these platforms predict that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) will achieve record highs, with a likelihood of the United States approving various new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Data as of December 26 indicates that Kalshi users estimate a more than 60% chance that BTC and ETH will reach at least $125,000 and $5,000, respectively, in 2025. Polymarket sets a 50% probability that BTC will hit $120,000 by the end of March. Currently, Bitcoin’s record high stands at roughly $108,300, while Ether’s is around $4,720.
Polymarket bettors are also optimistic about regulatory approvals, predicting with significant probability that ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin will be greenlit by July 31. The odds are approximately 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively, for these approvals. There is also a lower, 22% probability for a Dogecoin ETF approval in the same time frame.
In terms of U.S. political developments, Kalshi users see a 59% likelihood of the future U.S. President Donald Trump creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, although Polymarket assigns only a 29% probability for this to occur within his first 100 days in office.
These prediction markets gained credibility during the build-up to the U.S. elections in November, with over $4 billion traded related to the presidential race, accurately forecasting not only Trump’s election but also a sweep by his party in the House and Senate. Prediction markets operate by allowing traders to buy and sell contracts linked to specific events, with prices reacting dynamically to anticipated outcomes.
Conversely, more traditional futures markets like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) predict modest gains for cryptocurrencies by the first quarter of 2025. CME traders foresee BTC and ETH spot prices around $98,000 and $3,500, respectively, by March, reflecting increases from current prices of approximately $96,000 for BTC and $3,350 for ETH as of December 26, despite both cryptocurrencies experiencing a recent 4% drop.
Futures are standardized agreements regarding the future buying or selling of an asset, vital for hedging strategies and speculative purposes.
