Bitcoin has emerged as an investor favorite this past week, recording a noteworthy price increase of 4.07% according to data from CoinMarketCap. During this surge, the premier cryptocurrency traded as high as $66,000, a level last seen in late July. However, despite this price gain, which extends Bitcoin’s unusual positive performance in September, certain market conditions raise concerns about the sustainability of this rally.
Analyst Wenry, in a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, has outlined several reasons Bitcoin may not sustain its current upward trend. Wenry points to a lack of interest from retail investors in Korea and the US, as indicated by stagnant Taker volume. Unlike previous Bitcoin price rallies where retail activity in these countries was conspicuous, the current surge appears to lack new investments and is likely driven by a select group of market participants.
Moreover, Wenry highlights the high level of Open Interest in the BTC market, coupled with movement in a range-bound market due to low spot volume. This combination signals an absence of significant buying interest in Bitcoin despite the present rally. The analyst also notes that the current Bitcoin price gain is driven by a rise in derivatives trading due to macroeconomic factors such as the reduction of interest rates. Wenry emphasizes the lack of support from the spot market, suggesting the rally is likely a temporary uptick rather than a structural market shift.
In conclusion, Wenry states that the absence of significant spot market volume, a stagnant Taker volume, and low retail participation all threaten the longevity of Bitcoin’s current rally. If retail investors continue to stay away, Bitcoin is likely to remain in consolidation or even experience a price correction.
On another note, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe has predicted that Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high price of $73,750 in the last quarter of 2024, following a similar trajectory to gold. Van de Poppe’s prediction seems plausible as Q4 is traditionally the most bullish period for Bitcoin. Furthermore, the renowned analyst is also optimistic about altcoins, predicting a 3-5x price surge in the same period.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $65,810 following a 0.40% gain in the last day. Concurrently, the asset’s daily trading volume is down 53.16% and valued at $65,649.
