The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price have once again ignited interest among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency edges closer to a significant event—the upcoming US election in November. A prominent analyst, known in the crypto community as CoinLupin, shared an in-depth analysis on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlighting Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This metric is often utilized to assess Bitcoin’s value relative to its on-chain fundamentals.
In a landscape clouded by macroeconomic uncertainties, CoinLupin’s insights into the MVRV ratio have become crucial for understanding Bitcoin’s current market dynamics. The MVRV ratio currently stands around 2, signaling that Bitcoin’s market value is about twice its on-chain realized value, which is the average price paid by all asset holders.
CoinLupin emphasized the importance of observing changes in the MVRV trend over time rather than focusing solely on its absolute value. By analyzing the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV and the 4-year average—a reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical tendencies—the analyst observed that the MVRV ratio is above the long-term average and has recently surpassed its 365-day moving average. This indicates that Bitcoin’s upward momentum remains robust.
The veteran analyst further elaborated on the potential implications of Bitcoin’s MVRV levels in the context of historical cycle peaks. Historically, Bitcoin has peaked when the MVRV ratio ranges between 3 and 3.6. While the current MVRV of 2 is not within this peak range, its upward trajectory hints that the market might still have growth potential if historical trends persist. If the Realized Value remains stable, CoinLupin projects that Bitcoin would need a price hike of approximately 43% to 77% to reach an MVRV between 3 and 3.6. This translates to a potential price range of $95,000 to $120,000, assuming supporting market conditions. However, the analyst also noted that the Realized Value could rise if new buying interest surfaces, possibly pushing valuations even higher.
Over the past weeks, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of building momentum to surpass the $70,000 resistance level, only to fall below this mark again, signaling insufficient momentum for a further upward push. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $68,306, showing a minor increase of 1% in the last 24 hours, with its recent high being $69,317. The asset has witnessed a nearly 1% decline over the past week.
Interestingly, despite the recent slight dip in price, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has seen an uptick. According to data from CoinGecko, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume has risen from below $30 billion last Monday to above $38 billion presently. This increased trading activity indicates sustained investor interest and engagement with Bitcoin, even amidst price volatility.
