Analyst Predicts Bitcoin’s Fair Value to Reach $1 Million by 2035


In a thought-provoking exploration of Bitcoin’s trajectory, analyst Willy Woo has recently offered an intriguing forecast concerning the cryptocurrency’s “fair value.” His analysis projects that Bitcoin, based on its present course, is slated to reach a startling benchmark value of $1 million by the year 2035.

Woo’s attention is focused on the total user count present within the Bitcoin network to determine the path of its likely fair value. This total user count is predominantly understood to be the sum total of investors engaged within the Bitcoin space. Conventionally this count has been interpreted as the number of addresses on the network holding a balance, although Woo contends that this might not be the most precise metric due to the prevalence of investors owning multiple wallets.

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Woo’s methodology involved tracing Bitcoin’s fair value by constructing an adoption curve, taking under consideration all the previous studies related to the user count within the Bitcoin network. His analysis encompasses a vast array of data. The earliest part of the chart draws upon Glassnode’s method of clustering addresses into “entities,” which refers to multiple Bitcoin wallets believed to be owned by a single investor.

Subsequent sections of Woo’s curve take into account the Cambridge and data concerning verified exchange users. The projected growth rate is then extended into the future, leading to a current total user count of 426 million investors within the Bitcoin network. The analyst anticipates this number to surpass the half-billion threshold by October of this year.

What makes this interesting is the historical oscillation of Bitcoin’s price around this projected user-count growth curve. This oscillation has been consistent since 2012. Prior to that, however, the pattern isn’t as clear. Woo explains, “In the early days price was slow to catch up to user count, BTC didn’t even have a price until the 1000th user came in.”

According to Woo’s model, if the growth curve of Bitcoin is paralleled in the cryptocurrency’s future value, he projects the fair value of Bitcoin as being around $1 million per unit by 2035. The “fair value” refers to the line around which the asset has historically oscillated.

However, it’s just as possible for Bitcoin to rise above this projected line during bull markets, which suggests that the peak value in future rallies could considerably exceed Woo’s estimated fair value. Thus, this analysis yet to be validated as we continue to observe how Bitcoin’s price evolves in the coming years and examine whether the link between price and total user count remains consistent.

Despite this optimistic forecast, Bitcoin has experienced more than an 8% decline over the past week, dragging its current price down to a still-respectable $58,600. Therefore, while there has been a noticeable drop, Bitcoin’s recent resiliency and growth suggest that its future, while uncertain, holds considerable promise.