The 2021 federal election may be almost over – pending the counting of mailed-in ballots – but the analysis is far from over.
Liberals will, once again, be the party representing Prince Edward Island in Ottawa, but there are some curious results for those in 2nd, 3rd and 4th place across the region’s ridings.
All these results will be promising for some, and disappointing for others.
And it all begins with…
Another Liberal sweep
With P.E.I’s voting history, this should come as no surprise. For the third successive election and the ninth time in the last eleven elections, Liberal candidates have taken all four federal electoral districts in P.E.I.
Amassing more than 50% of the vote, Lawrence MacAulay is going back to Ottawa for his 11th straight term. He has been Cardigan’s member of parliament since 1988.
Bobby Morrissey and Sean Casey were also re-elected in Egmont and Charlottetown respectively.
Moving on and for the first time in nearly 30 years…
Malpeque has a new MP
Health MacDonald has made the jump from provincial to federal politics.
Wayne Easter held this riding from 1993 to this summer, and is now handing over the reins to the previous Liberal MLA and provincial cabinet minister.
MacDonald, who represented Cornwall-Meadowbank regionally, resigned in August to seek the Liberal nomination in Malpeque. With around 41% of the vote in this election (around 9,500 votes), MacDonald’s vote-get her closely reflects the support shown for Easter in 2019.
Easter’s share of the vote then was only over 41%, additionally with about 9,500 votes.
Among the four ridings, this was tightest race for the Liberals, even if MacDonald won by around 1,800 votes over Conservative candidate Jody Sanderson. Elsewhere…
Conservatives rebounded on P.E.I.
While the Conservatives did not win a seat P.E.I in this election, candidates placed second in all four ridings, a feat they had not accomplished in 10 years.
The party’s vote generally waned on P.E.I after the 2011 election, with the Conservatives losing Egmont in 2015 to Liberal Bobby Morrissey; falling to third place in Charlottetown in 2015 and 2019; and placing third in Malpeque in 2019.
The party made major gains in Charlottetown and Malpeque, up by around 1,500 votes in both ridings.
But with Conservative support surging once again…
What happened to the Green Party?
The Greens saw their support plummet dramatically this time around.
Candidates Anna Keenan and Darcie Lanthier placed second in Malpeque and Charlottetown respectively in the 2019 federal election. They drew a combined 10,000+ votes in what was the strongest federal showing for the party ever on Prince Edward Island.
This time, the same candidates earned just about 5,000 votes between them. Keenan finished third in Malpeque and Lanthier fourth in Charlottetown. Likewise, the party lost thousands of votes in Cardigan and Egmont.
NDP reclaim 3rd-place spots in 2 ridings
The surge of the Greens regionally and federally on Prince Edward Island saw NDP support fall in previous provincial and federal elections, but this time was different.
The NDP picked up the third-place finishes in Cardigan and Charlottetown – a level of support they haven’t seen since 2015.
The party additionally secured hundreds more votes in Malpeque and Egmont.
The NDP don’t have the swath of votes they got in 2015, however, but it was a stronger turnout than 2019.