The race for the White House in 2028 is already heating up just hours after President-elect Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Trump is set to be sworn in for his second four-year term on January 20, 2025. Bettors on the wagering exchange Kalshi are already placing early bets on who will be the Republican and Democratic parties’ respective nominees and which party will ultimately emerge victorious in four years.
Kalshi, the only regulated online platform offering event contracts on binary political derivatives, shows bettors favoring Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as the front-runner for the Democratic ticket in 2028, with his shares trading at implied odds of 18%. Political analysts suggest that Harris’ decision not to pick Shapiro as her running mate, missing out on the third Jewish governor in Pennsylvania’s history, negatively impacted her 2024 campaign. Harris lost the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania by a narrow 2%.
Following Shapiro in the betting odds is California Governor Gavin Newsom, trailing by just 1%. Newsom was previously considered a potential backup plan to President Joe Biden amid speculation that he might step aside earlier this year. However, party leaders eventually chose Harris. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg holds the third-highest odds on the Kalshi board at 12%, followed by Maryland Governor Wes Moore at 7%, and former First Lady Michelle Obama rounding out the top five with shares at 6%.
On the Republican side, Trump will have exhausted his two terms in four years and will therefore be unable to seek a third term. His 2024 running mate, Vice President-elect JD Vance, is the early favorite to secure the Republican nomination in 2028 and potentially become the leader of the GOP. Vance’s implied odds are currently at 59%. Donald Trump Jr., the president-elect’s eldest son, holds the next highest odds at 15%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is third with 4%, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin comes in fourth at 3%, and Missouri’s U.S. Senator Josh Hawley is fifth with shares at 1%.
Regarding which party will win the presidency, the Republicans hold a marginal lead with 51% over the Democrats’ 49%. However, betting on these long-term outcomes has been relatively sparse, as bettors will need to wait four years to possibly see a return. The Democratic nominee market has fielded $4,900 in bets, while the GOP ticket has attracted $12,000. Meanwhile, the overall 2028 outcome market has over $6,400 wagered.
Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, played a significant role in Trump’s reelection campaign and is expected to be strongly considered for a position in the president-elect’s administration. Kalshi bettors are placing action on whether Musk will be nominated to Trump’s Cabinet, with current odds suggesting a 36% chance. Robert Kennedy Jr.’s chances for a Cabinet position are looking stronger, with shares trading at 76%. Additionally, Hawaii’s former U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat turned Republican, is likely to secure a role in the West Wing, with shares at 59%.
