The likelihood of a Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) receiving approval in the United States by 2025 has surpassed previous optimistic predictions, according to Matthew Sigel, the head of research at VanEck. On January 1, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, estimated the odds of a U.S. Solana ETF being listed in 2025 at approximately 77%. Sigel, however, views this outlook as overly cautious, especially after the November election win of President-elect Donald Trump, who has expressed ambitions to establish the U.S. as a leading crypto hub.
Prediction markets like Polymarket function by allowing users to trade contracts tied to potential events, with prices adjusting based on expected outcomes. As of January 2, Polymarket’s predictions indicated an increase to an 84% probability for the Solana ETF listing, highlighting growing optimism in the sector.
In June, VanEck, along with 21Shares, sought approval from U.S. regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, their plans faced scrutiny from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which raised concerns about Solana’s classification as a security rather than a commodity. Currently, only Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are permitted to trade on U.S. exchanges, using a specific structure designed for funds holding a single type of commodity. Analysts suggest that success for Solana ETFs may depend on their ability to conform to similar structural requirements.
Trump’s presidential win is seen by industry analysts as likely to catalyze the approval of several pending crypto ETFs in the U.S. Following Trump’s victory, Sigel reportedly commented that the odds of a Solana ETF being approved by 2025 are exceedingly high.
Polymarket, noted as the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, registered nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December. During the U.S. elections, betting platforms demonstrated higher accuracy compared to traditional polling, successfully predicting Trump’s victory and his party’s control over both the House and Senate. Bettors are optimistic about 2025, forecasting a favorable year for cryptocurrency markets, with anticipated all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ether and the introduction of several new types of crypto ETFs in the U.S.
